MEDIA RELEASE
OCT 8, 2009
Big Joe new $1.85 favourite to lead Coalition
into next Fed election!
Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey is the new $1.85 favourite with leading political
bookmaker Centrebet to lead the embattled Coalition into the next Federal
election, displacing leader Malcolm Turnbull ($2.30) in the wake of the emissions
trading scheme party revolt!
Centrebet media chief and political analyst Neil Evans said he was shocked punters had not
taken the price of $2.75 that had been freely available about Mr Hockey, instead most still
backing the Liberal leader! When the bookmaker opened the Coalition leader market in early
2009, Mr Turnbull was seemingly already under party-room pressure quoted at $2.10, with Mr
Hockey a clear rival at $2.40! Tony Abbott was the only other “real” contender, priced at $8.00!
“Most punters believed Mr Turnbull was capable of fighting off the wolves, and maintaining
his leadership right to the wire, and he was backed into even money ($2.00)! At the same time,
Mr Hockey gradually eased out to $2.75, while punting support, and continual bad polls for
the leader, saw Mr Abbott shorten into $5.25!” Evans said.
“Our belief has always been that considering the swing the Coalition requires, Mr Hockey was
the one man in conservative politics who could drag votes from the other side. There’s always
been a strong feeling Mr Turnbull would not resonate at the ballot box, even with swinging
voters! There are two other key factors – one is former Treasurer Peter Costello is now gone,
and the other is Mr Hockey represents North Sydney, a better seat territorily for shifting
voting opinion than Mr Turnbull’s Wentworth or Mr Abbott’s Warringah!”
The Liberal leadership woes, a shock fall in the national unemployment figure, and continued
backing for Kevin Rudd’s government has also seen Centrebet firm the ALP in to $1.25 to win
the next election, with the Coalition easing to an all-time high of $3.85, with nearly
$100,000.00 wagered already!
But NSW could not be a more conflicting story, with Barry O’Farrell’s Coalition backed in to
$1.20 to win the next NSW poll, while Nathan Rees’ embattled Labor government has blown
to a record high $4.25!
COALITION LEADER AT NEXT AUST FED ELECTION (Sch 2010/11)
$1.85
JOE HOCKEY
(in from $2.75)
$2.30
MALCOLM TURNBULL
(out from $2.00)
$5.00
TONY ABBOTT
(in from $5.25)
$9.00 ANY OTHER C’DATE
(in from $12.00)
$11.00 ANDREW ROBB
(out from $8.00)
$15.00 CHRISTOPHER PYNE
(out from $14.00)
$21.00 PETER DUTTON
$21.00 JULIE BISHOP
AUST FED ELECTION (Sch 2010/11)
$1.25
LABOR
(in from $1.26)
$3.85
COALITION
(out from $3.70)
NSW STATE ELECTION (Sch 2011)
$4.25
LABOR
(out from $4.10)
$1.20
COALITION
(in from $1.22)
LABOR LEADER AT NEXT NSW STATE ELECTION (Sch 2011)
$3.65
KRISTINA KENNEALLY
$3.70
NATHAN REES
$4.10
FRANK SARTOR
$4.10
CARMEL TEBBUTT
$9.00
JOHN ROBERTSON
$12.00 MICHAEL DALEY
$13.00 ANY OTHER C’DATE
$16.00 JOHN DELLA BOSCA
$18.00 VIRGINIA JUDGE
$21.00 VERITY FIRTH
$26.00 STEVE WHAN
$26.00 ERIC ROOZENDAAL
$34.00 DAVID CAMPBELL
$67.00 MORRIS IEMMA
WILL LABOR HAVE MALE OR FEMALE PREMIER AT NEXT NSW STATE ELECTION?
$1.85
MALE
$1.85
FEMALE
SA STATE ELECTION (Sch 2010)
$1.15
LABOR
(out from $1.13)
$5.00
LIBERAL
(in from $5.50)
VIC STATE ELECTION (Sch 2010)
$1.19
LABOR
$4.20
COALITION
TAS STATE ELECTION (Sch 2010)
$1.69
LABOR
$2.13
LIBERAL
Media contact
Neil Evans
+61 2 9206 8759 (office)
+61 418 278022 (mobile)
neil.evans@centrebet.com
NEWS 
